Table of Contents
Market Overview
Key Index Charts
Earnings & Interesting Movers Recap: EBAY, GME, PINS, DUOL, PYPL, AMD, CPNG, FTNT, ARM, DASH, ZTS, HUBS, IREN, NET and TTD.
Earnings to Watch This Week: CEG, CRCL, OKLO, BABA, CSCO and AMAT.
1. Market Overview
Sometimes we find similarities in weird places. Some call it pattern recognition, others coincidence. Red Tuesdays. Taco Tuesdays. Wingstop and financial conditions. AI stocks trading like sovereign entities. After staring at markets long enough, everything eventually starts looking connected. Maybe that’s professional deformation. Or maybe markets themselves are becoming a reflexive loop.
Earnings season is mostly over. There are still some interesting reports left, with Nvidia sitting there as the giant cherry on top, but the main wave has already passed. The dispersion trade is fading and the tape is slowly returning to its usual rhythm. Strikes for CSPs will be updated shortly, though this still does not look like the best environment for put writing. When everything keeps working at once, people forget how quickly “great entry prices” can turn into long term investments once liquidity finally shifts the other way. And truly great entry prices usually come with terrible premiums anyway, especially in the volatility regime we are currently sitting in.
Also, it’s worth keeping an eye on a potential VIX signal that might be forming soon enough, this time on the short side. Like I said before, none of this is an exact science. Everything here is probability-based and reaction-driven.
And straight to the cheat codes. Back in 2002 Blizzard released Warcraft III. Years later Blizzard merged with Activision, and eventually the whole thing ended up inside Microsoft after the 2023 acquisition. Yes, the same Microsoft tied into OpenAI and the broader AI trade. Funny how everything eventually loops back to the same corner of the market. Performance wise, though, Microsoft lately looks AFK while everyone else is busy farming.
One of the most famous Warcraft cheat codes was greedisgood, instantly giving players extra gold and lumber. The stock market has its own versions. The Fed put. Too big to fail. Endless liquidity. At some point the AI trade quietly became all of them at once. It stopped being just another theme and turned into a universal cheatcode against underperformance. Oil, inflation, exploding capex, the Fed: none of it seems to matter as long as money keeps flowing into the same trade. Good or bad is a different discussion. Markets already made their choice.
Another interesting mechanic returns this summer with single stock futures coming back to the U.S. market.
Quarterly expiration officially becomes Quadruple Witching again, with the missing witch finally back after 2020. Add Russell reconstitution into the mix and June starts looking less like a normal month and more like a setup for mechanical dislocations, forced positioning, and liquidity driven chaos around names getting added, removed, chased, or dumped for reasons that have very little to do with fundamentals.
For those who recently joined, I’ll drop the Russell reconstitution dislocation breakdown here because this is exactly what I’ll be monitoring closely again.
Another Warcraft cheat code was allyourbasearebelongtous, an instant victory shortcut. But there is one important limitation: Single-Player Only. Sorry, Donald, it won’t work on Iran. Otherwise it would be too Big and Beautiful to be true.
Meanwhile greed is still good. Gordon Gekko understood that long before AI became the market’s favorite infinite money glitch.
2. Key Index Charts
In this section I highlight only the most important zones with brief comments. I use fully layered charts to identify them, but keep the charts here clean for clarity.
The fact that we cleared ATH doesn’t mean there is no resistance above. Most of it now comes from angled structures such as weekly trendlines, measured move targets, and various extension levels. There is no traditional overhead supply left from a volume profile perspective for obvious reasons, which is why price discovery tends to happen in what traders call a fast zone. Still, convergences between those areas should be watched closely, and the same goes for support. Most of the important structures and POCs are now sitting well below current price.
SPY
The S&P 500 ETF closed right at the highlighted resistance around 739. The next area to watch sits near 751.5, while key support now shifts toward 716.
QQQ
The Nasdaq 100 ETF remains unstoppable, with the next area to watch around 726. Key support now shifts toward 667.
IWM
The Russell 2000 ETF has an important weekly TRL in plain sight around 293. Let’s see if it has enough fuel left to flip that one as well. Key support now shifts toward 274.
TLT
The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF bounced off its key weekly BSL while the 30Y is flirting with 5%. Key support now shifts toward 84.5, while key resistance also moves slightly higher to 87.5.
BTC
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is also flirting with a key level, this time the 200d MA. Key resistance shifts slightly toward 87500, while key support remains intact at 71000.
ETH
Ethereum looks slightly weaker than its bigger brother, struggling with Tom’s 2400 “touch and bottom” area. Key resistance shifts slightly toward 2525, while key support remains intact.
3. Earnings & Interesting Movers Recap
Starting this week, I’ll include snapshots from the Price Action Playbook: Research dump throughout the recap. I’ll break down the logic behind some of the key levels shared with subscribers during the week, along with a few setups from the latest Weekly Playbook. The goal is not to cover every ticker, but to focus on the most interesting reactions around those areas and, most importantly, the logic behind them.
