Weekly Playbook: July 13th

Earnings season is back. Are you ready?

Table of Contents

1. Market Overview

2. Earnings to Watch This Week: GS, JPM, ASML, JNJ, GE, TSM, UNH, NFLX and probably STX

1. Market Overview

Earnings season is back.

Banks officially kick things off next week, though the first real heavyweight arrives shortly after with Netflix. From there, the calendar only gets busier before eventually reaching its usual peak. Everything’s eventual.

The tape has been forgiving. Earnings usually become the first real attempt to prove it deserves to be. Beating estimates has quietly become the expectation. Guidance will make or break stuff.

We don’t predict earnings. We identify key areas and watch the reaction. Institutions leave footprints. Price action simply shows where. Stock, options, leveraged ETFs, single stock futures... it doesn’t matter. Execution comes first. The vehicle comes later. Identify the area, wait for the tape, take calculated risk, and let the market do the rest. Meanwhile, market mechanics never take a week off.

SPCX NSDQ 100 inclusion

NSDQ posted a significant closing imbalance around 3:50 PM, triggering an initial 1.5% rip. By the Closing Cross, roughly half of the imbalance had already disappeared, leaving around 70M paired and little reason to wait for the final print. Once rebalance flows settled, it didn’t take long to break below the IPO lows. Another couple of million shares of closing imbalance into Friday’s close suggested the appointment with the IPO price hadn’t been cancelled just yet. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, let’s take a look at another candidate for the IPO of the year.

SKHY aka SKHYV

This isn’t a traditional IPO, though. SK Hynix has traded publicly in Korea for years. Still, it’s the largest ADR listing ever to reach the U.S. market.

One thing I know for sure: the V disappears from the ticker on Monday around 4:45 AM. It simply stands for when-issued trading. Once regular-way trading begins, it becomes SKHY. Everything else is probability based.

Let’s take a look anyway.

SK Hynix remains the leading supplier of high bandwidth memory (HBM), one of the key bottlenecks behind today’s AI infrastructure buildout.

Similar to SPCX, it didn’t take long to reclaim the key POC in afterhours trading. Whether bulls can actually hold it is another question, and Monday will answer that.

I won’t go through the basics of the initial IPO range, IPO extensions, and day one mechanics again. Those were covered in detail a few editions ago using SPCX, and the same framework applies here. You can also check how those areas played out afterwards in the charting platform of your choice.

Monday’s roadmap: holding above 170.25 and clearing the developing POC around 174.5 would shift attention back toward the IPO high, with further IPO extensions becoming the next logical roadmap. Clear rejection there would quickly shift attention back toward the IPO low and eventually the IPO price.

Personally, I’ll take either scenario, assuming locates are available and reasonably priced.

Before earnings season takes over completely, here’s the chart of the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trying to repair the tape. We’ll see if the duct tape holds around key areas.

2. Earnings to Watch This Week

Starting next week, Earnings to Watch This Week moves back behind the paywall.

In this section I share clean charts highlighting only the key areas used for planning and execution. The levels are identified using fully layered charts, but are presented here without the extra clutter.

All levels reflect Friday’s close and serve as a roadmap rather than a prediction. If a key area is in play before earnings, the focus shifts to the next relevant zone.

That’s not inconsistency. That’s price action.

Tuesday

GS

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $2.4 billion

• Support: $931-985 (Projected move to support: -6.65%)

• Resistance: $1125-1173 (Projected move to resistance: +6.62%)

JPM

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $3.5 billion

• Support: $310-318 (Projected move to support: -5.49%)

• Resistance: $347.25-359.25 (Projected move to resistance: +3.20%)

Wednesday

ASML

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $3.8 billion

• Support: $1547-1650 (Projected move to support: -8.20%)

• Resistance: $1972.5-2082 (Projected move to resistance: +9.75%)

JNJ

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $2.2 billion

• Support: $228-243 (Projected move to support: -5.44%)

• Resistance: $271-281.25 (Projected move to resistance: +5.46%)

Thursday

GE

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $1.8 billion

• Support: $305-332.75 (Projected move to support: -7.38%)

• Resistance: $383-405 (Projected move to resistance: +6.61%)

TSM

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $6.2 billion

• Support: $370-398.5 (Projected move to support: -8.20%)

• Resistance: $480-493.5 (Projected move to resistance: +10.57%)

UNH

• EPS Timing: Before Market Open

• Turnover: $2.8 billion

• Support: $374-402.5 (Projected move to support: -5.21%)

• Resistance: $454-489 (Projected move to resistance: +6.92%)

NFLX

• EPS Timing: After Market Close

• Turnover: $3.3 billion

• Support: $61-68 (Projected move to support: -7.32%)

• Resistance: $79-85.5 (Projected move to resistance: +7.67%)

STX (UNCONFIRMED)

• EPS Timing: After Market Close

• Turnover: $4.1 billion

• Support: $620-720 (Projected move to support: -20.91%)

• Resistance: $1080-1200 (Projected move to resistance: +18.64%)

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