Table of Contents
Market Overview
Research Unpacked: SE, ONON, CAVA, CRWV, CSCO and CBRS
Earnings to Watch This Week: HD, ADI, BABA, DE and WMT
1. Market Overview
Apparently price targets only become ridiculous when they point down.
Michael Burry recently argued that Palantir is worth less than $1 per share over the long run. One dollar. Take off your hat, boy. That’s a dollar bill.
The reaction has been almost more entertaining than the call itself. Burry does have an actual methodology behind the number, and whether you agree with it or think he completely lost the plot is beside the point. The market will eventually decide what PLTR is worth without asking any of us. What I find much more interesting is that apparently he is not even supposed to say it out loud.
That is a pretty funny standard considering what happens when the exact same game is played in the other direction. Cathie Wood can put a $1.5 million target on Bitcoin and we call it a bull case. Tom Lee can spend years moving six figure Bitcoin targets around and extend the same generosity to Ethereum. Somewhere on Substack, Tesla was going to $6,000. I asked a question about that one. Apparently “block” was easier than “thanks for asking.” Then UNH became the buying opportunity of the century across FinTwit, with people casually throwing around triples and $600 by year end. It did recover, but the calls expired worthless. For full disclosure, I didn’t have any. PLTR puts, meanwhile, still have some theta. For full disclosure, I don’t have those either.
So turns out we can play this game both ways. Come up with a number. The weirder the better. “Funding secured” is optional, but 420 is highly recommended. Publish it. Sit back, relax, and try not to think about SpaceX.
Speaking of SpaceX, by the way. The first big lockup scare is behind us, and those positioned for the Big and Beautiful dump did not exactly get what they ordered. Roughly 911.5 million additional shares became eligible for sale on August 6 and the stock ripped almost 16% the following session. There had been plenty of positioning ahead of the event, so short covering was almost certainly part of the fun once the expected selling pressure failed to materialize. That does not suddenly make SpaceX a different company, nor does it remove the supply question. Another roughly 319 million shares become eligible on August 20, followed by several more tranches later this year. Sometimes it’s better to be late than early.
I still prefer SKHY from a purely technical perspective anyway. Especially after semis decided to strike back. Turns out the semiconductor bear market died before it really had enough time to be born. Now the same group is bouncing hard enough that eventually somebody will announce the beginning of a new semiconductor bull market, preferably after enough of the move has already happened. This stuff really writes itself.
Next week should provide a short breather before NVIDIA reports on August 26. There is also an MSCI rebalance waiting at the end of the month, with the August changes implemented on the August 31 close. That deserves considerably more than one sentence buried at the bottom of Market Overview, though. Though it might be worth more than $1.
2. Research Unpacked
Below is this week’s Price Action Playbook: Research dump
Let’s look at the logic behind some of those areas:
SE 129
Sea’s Q2 growth extended across all three of its core businesses, with Shopee benefiting from higher merchandise volume and improved monetization, Monee expanding its consumer and small business credit operations, and Garena increasing both active users and paying penetration. Revenue grew 48% while adjusted EBITDA reached $917 million, although EPS fell short of expectations. Management now expects Shopee to generate $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, marking further progress in scaling the marketplace profitably while continuing selective investment across ecommerce, digital finance, and gaming.
129 is formed by the developing POC, prior weekly pivot high from July 2020 and fresh weekly DTL.
It was initially rejected in premarket trading, though bulls managed to reclaim the area and push the stock higher. However, 2nd day tape was mixed with no clear followthrough, with sellers slowly but steadily regaining control. The rest is in the books, though I’d keep an eye on the area just in case.
ONON 33(31)
